Market Insights
Our latest insights on bond market activity
Fed Rates, Tariffs & MUNI Moves
Today’s 2/20 applications for US unemployment benefits showed little change last week, hovering around pre-COVID levels and indicating solid demand for workers. Initial claims increased by 5000 to 219000 in the week ended 2/15. There is not much change; we all know...
CPI Sparks Inflation Fears and Shifts Rate Cut Expectations – FED Debate Heats Up Amid Market Volatility
CPI is the hot topic on 2/12. The danger is that an elevated inflation reading and the news headlines it produces will add to inflation expectations. As we have mentioned in the past two weeks, inflation has already been ticking up amid all the discussions of tariffs....
Jobs, Yields, and MUNI Issuance: A Look at Key Market Drivers
We saw that Jobless claims picked up today and are still near pre-COVID levels. Applications for US unemployment benefits increased by 11K to 219K, which was reported today, 2/6/2025. Continuing claims rose to 1.89MM in the week ended 1/25/25, and the average of new...
Read our latest musings about actions and events affecting the investment landscape.
Treasuries Rally as Inflation Slows, MUNIs Yield Higher
Treasuries rallied as inflation slowed and was lower than forecasted. On Wednesday, we saw a surge in US government debt, pushing yields lower by ~10bps across the curve.
Yields Surge After Strong Jobs Report as Fed Concerns and Market Pressures Mount
T yields are at their highest level since 11/2023 after the jobs data this morning came in stronger than forecasted. 10T added 10bps in a matter of minutes, and the 2-year surged 12bps.
As anticipated, the Fed lowered interest rates by a quarter point
The Federal Reserve, in a move that was largely anticipated, lowered interest rates by a quarter point today, bringing the target Fed Funds rate range to 4.25%-4.5%.
We’re watching for credit quality in education and renewable energy sectors
U.S. wholesale prices remained inflated in November, signaling a stall in the fight against inflation.
The Fed’s Beige Book report indicates flat employment and low worker turnover
The number of new applications for unemployment benefits increased moderately last week as the labor market seems to be cooling a little. According to the Labor Department, the number of claims filed rose by 9000. These claims are still consistent with a growth...
Historically, November has been a strong month for Muni returns
After a successful month of underwriting, investors have shown a strong appetite for municipal bond issues. This week, with the Thanksgiving holiday, the calendar was light. Looking ahead to December, there should only be two heavy weeks of trading with the Christmas...
We believe we will see continued pressure on yields to increase
The 10-year is trading at 4.40% this morning. We believe we will continue to see pressure on yields to move up.Boston Fed President Susan Collins supports further interest-rate cuts with a cautious approach to avoid moving too quickly or too slowly. She described the...
Post-election investors react similarly as they did in 2016
The 10-year Treasury is trading at 4.39% this morning as of 11/07. We saw high cuts yesterday, +17bps on the long end, the highest move we have seen in a long time for one day.
Municipalities capitalizing on lower rates rush to market before year-end
Municipalities capitalizing on lower rates and a rush to market before the year-end have created a heavy underwriting calendar for the second week. Also, municipalities have not had to come to market as often in the last few years due to COVID-19 funds.Levels this...