Market Insights

Treasuries rallied as inflation slowed and was lower than forecasted. On Wednesday, we saw a surge in US government debt, pushing yields lower by ~10bps across the curve.

T yields are at their highest level since 11/2023 after the jobs data this morning came in stronger than forecasted. 10T added 10bps in a matter of minutes, and the 2-year surged 12bps.

We try to keep politics out of these newsletters; however, this topic should be covered with the US elections less than three weeks away. We have been discussing supply for quite some time and how the 30-day supply of MUNIs rose to about $22.9B as of Wednesday this...

Historically, October has been the most volatile month for the markets. With the 2024 Presidential Election looming this year, October is shaping to be a rocky ride for investors. While the market anticipates a rate cut next month, there is the feeling that our...

US manufacturing activity shrank in September for the sixth straight month, reflecting weak orders and declining employment. This is one of the primary reasons we saw yields fall yesterday, along with the Israel conflict raging. I suspect these numbers (manufacturing)...

Many FED Governors supported the Fed’s decision to move rates down; Adriana Kugler is one of them. Yesterday, she indicated that sustained progress on inflation and a moderating labor market means it is time for the Fed members to ease policy and pay close attention...

The FOMC concluded one of its most suspenseful meetings ever by cutting rates by 50bps, more than many thought.  The word "recalibration" was used multiple times yesterday in the FED meeting, and I suspect the FED sees the 50bps move as a preemptive one that will be...

According to the Investment Company Institute, investors added $1.33 billion from municipal bond mutual funds in the week ending Aug. 28. The prior week saw a $1.32 billion inflow. We should continue to see an inflow of funds while everyone expects the FED to cut...

Higher-end real-estate developments are starting to tap the MUNI market through what is being called "luxury dirt deals," which will carry higher yields due to the added risk associated with these deals.  This year, MUNIs have helped finance a vacation home golf...

A technical glitch prevented the US Government from sharing key payroll data on time last week.  This episode has prompted steps to beef up data release protocols. Overall, we are seeing more and more companies (and governments) continue to step up their protocols as...